The Cook Report is now calling the Texas Senate race a “toss up.” Did you hear that? A toss up.

By | 2018-09-21T08:07:04+00:00 September 22nd, 2018|Categories: News|Tags: , , , , , , |9 Comments


Courtesy of The Hill:

The Cook Political Report on Friday updated its rating for Texas’s heated Senate race, moving it from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” amid new polls showing Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in a tightening race with Sen. Ted Cruz (R).

The change in rating Friday came amid two other Senate race changes, with the prediction website changing the race for Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) seat from “likely” to “leans” Democratic, while the West Virginia Senate race moved from “toss-up” to leaning in favor of incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D).

Cook’s authors did not immediately give any explanation for the ratings change, but the move follows a series of polls showing Cruz with a small single-digit lead over his insurgent opponent, who has outraised Cruz by millions since the campaign began.

A survey by left-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling found Cruz with just a 3-point lead over his opponent on Thursday among registered Texas voters. A Reuters–Ipsos poll the day before found O’Rourke with a 2-point lead.

“There’s a possibility it could happen. I’m not saying probable. But it’s possible,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told Reuters of O’Rourke’s chances in the Reuter’s poll release Wednesday.

Look I do not have the same credentials as a Larry Sabato, but I think that this race is now quite probably going to go to the Democrats. 

That is certainly not written in stone, but I really think that these pollsters are missing a huge number of O’Rourke supporters and that quite likely on election day they are going to turn up in numbers that are going to drown out the voices of the Cruz supporters. 

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9 Comments

    • ak September 22, 2018 at 6:33 am

      Schneider was charged with four felonies, including kidnapping and assault. He pleaded guilty to a single felony assault charge in the second degree in exchange for a sentence of two years with one suspended, plus three years probation. Schneider received credit for time served while wearing an ankle monitor and living with his wife and two children.
      “I would just like to emphasize how grateful I am for this process,” Schneider said, not mentioning the impact on the victim, KTVA reported. “It has given me a year to really work on myself and become a better person, and a better husband, and a better father, and I’m very eager to continue that journey.”<RiiiggghhhttT

  1. Beaglemom September 22, 2018 at 6:28 am

    I sure hope that Beto O’Rourke wins. He’s just what Texas needs. A bit of soul.

  2. Anonymous September 22, 2018 at 7:52 am

    Guess Cruz can head back to Canada !!!

  3. Anon September 22, 2018 at 8:54 am

    OT?
    https://thinkprogress.org/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-deposed-rig-2020-census-e77416c23542/

    “”Secretary Ross must sit for a deposition because, among other things, his intent and credibility are directly at issue.”
    “Last month, Forbes’ Dan Alexander reported that he may have siphoned more than $120 MILLION worth of assets from his associates.
    Two weeks earlier, Ross settled a lawsuit days after being subpoenaed to testify about whether he had been truthful about his dealings with a former partner during his confirmation process. In March, Ross made headlines for suggesting that concerns that Trump’s trade wars could mean significant price increases for consumers were nothing more than “HYSTERIA.”
    Paying more for goods “doesn’t mean anything to people,” the billionaire businessman said.”<RiiiggghhhttT

  4. Anonymous September 22, 2018 at 12:11 pm

    The other sound you hear is Mitch McConnell’s head exploding. Seriously, the day after the election, if the Democratics take the House, I expect tRump to declare martial law

  5. viv September 22, 2018 at 5:54 pm

    I expect you’re right about the pollsters missing a chunk of Beto’s constituency but the Republicans have all manner of dirty tricks that only appear at the last minute if they’re behind and I can’t see Texans marching in the streets demanding a clean election result.

    The few Texans I know will vote for Cruz if they vote at all. And they’ll never mention politics. Sweet, charmin’, good Xian women looking the other way while Texas has third-world maternal mortality rates- and rising- makes one assume only non-white women are dying from childbirth in astonishing numbers in Texas.. agh…

  6. Anonymous September 22, 2018 at 7:56 pm

    That Dino fuck Manchin will still confirm Kavanaugh. Tester probably will too. And Heitkamp (?). So even with Collins and Murkowski Pence will break the tie and Kavanaugh will be in. In or out, he will be the undoing of the GOP as it will just aggravate the direction of Novembers elections further. Republicans are going to lose what used to be sure seats. It will be a bloodbath.

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