— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) September 21, 2018
Courtesy of The Hill:
The Cook Political Report on Friday updated its rating for Texas’s heated Senate race, moving it from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” amid new polls showing Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in a tightening race with Sen. Ted Cruz (R).
The change in rating Friday came amid two other Senate race changes, with the prediction website changing the race for Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) seat from “likely” to “leans” Democratic, while the West Virginia Senate race moved from “toss-up” to leaning in favor of incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D).
Cook’s authors did not immediately give any explanation for the ratings change, but the move follows a series of polls showing Cruz with a small single-digit lead over his insurgent opponent, who has outraised Cruz by millions since the campaign began.
A survey by left-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling found Cruz with just a 3-point lead over his opponent on Thursday among registered Texas voters. A Reuters–Ipsos poll the day before found O’Rourke with a 2-point lead.
“There’s a possibility it could happen. I’m not saying probable. But it’s possible,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told Reuters of O’Rourke’s chances in the Reuter’s poll release Wednesday.
Look I do not have the same credentials as a Larry Sabato, but I think that this race is now quite probably going to go to the Democrats.
That is certainly not written in stone, but I really think that these pollsters are missing a huge number of O’Rourke supporters and that quite likely on election day they are going to turn up in numbers that are going to drown out the voices of the Cruz supporters.